Could this be Chinese hacking act?

TOKYO, Dec. 31, 2023—China’s aggressive cyberspace hacking is being felt in the United States, Europe, Taiwan and all over the world but rarely do you hear about it in Japan. Is Xi Jingpin sparing Japan from its intervention? There was a curious incident on Dec. 28, 2023.

Products of Hoyu Co., Ltd. of Nagoya, Japan, a 118-year-old hair color manufacturer, had been banned for imports to China because of its production process problems that were found out by the Chinese on on-line analysis, according to Japanese media reports Dec. 28.

It’s rare that China has conducted an on-line inspection of a foreign company and even rarer that an trade ban was decided based on meager analysis data available on-line. This has raised speculation that the Chinese might have hacked into Hoyu’s computer system and tinkered to insert false data.

Chinese cyberspace assault has been reported as daily affairs in other countries over the past months, filtering into power grids, nuclear power facilities, central government functions, but except for intermittent news reports, in Japan, the Chinese infiltrations have been treated as rare cases. Among a few news reports are Black Tech’s potential threats and hacking attempts to the Japanese Defense Ministry computer system this summer to fall. Japanese news media reported about the MOD hacking only after American news reports.

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Japanese prosecutors widen probe of ruling LDP party finance scandal

TOKYO, Dec. 28, 2023—Unbent to political pressure, Japanese public prosecutors Dec. 28, 2023 widened their probe of ruling Liberal Democratic Party finance scandals, arresting a former justice minister and raiding the offices of another LDP politician. The prosecutors’ objective: Regaining its public status that had fallen to the bottom during the reigns of the late, scandal-infested prime minister, Shinzo Abe.

Tokyo public prosecutors Dec. 28 morning arrested Mito Kakizawa for bribery charges relating to giving cash to Tokyo district assembly members to win support for the April 2023 election of the district mayor, Japanese media reported. His secretaries also were arrested. The mayor stepped down soon after the scandal surfaced.

Meanwhile, the Tokyo prosecutors made unannounced raids of the offices of Yasutada Ono, an LDP House of Councilor politician, the day after they made a similar raid of Yoshiytaka Ikeda’s offices Dec. 27. Both politicians are LDP faction members of the late prime minister Shinzo Abe, who had been widely known but barely reported as the robber baron for pilfering election finance party ticket sales proceeds for his own favors.

With the arrest of Kakizawa, the prosecutors are likely to swoop over other Abe faction and LDP politicians, possibly arresting more of them. Ono served as transport minister. Ikeda is at large as of this wring, reportedly hiding to avoid his arrest.

Abe intervention in prosecutors HR policy

Feared as tough and unwavering from influence, the Tokyo prosecutors office had enjoyed the public trust in such 2010s cases as the arrest of former Nissan Motor Co. CEO Carlos Ghosn for breach of trust, misappropriation of corporate money and violation of securities laws; a former justice minister and his wife for illegal campaign financing; and a lawmaker for bribery related to Japan’s national casino project.

But in February 2020, the prosecutors office’s reputation plummeted to the ground. Abe made a cabinet decision to extend the legal retirement age of prosecutors to enable Hiromu Kurokawa, then the Tokyo High Prosecutor-general, the second highest prosecutor office position, to be promoted as the prosecutor-general, to urge the prosecutors to end the probe of Abe’s personal bribery scandal called the Mori-Kake scandal. Kurokawa was known for close connections to Abe and his deputy Yoshihide Suga.

In April 2020, Abe sent legislation to amend the prosecutors agency law to parliament, and the Japanese public loudly protested the bill in Twitter and other social media, with the chain reaction from the prosecutors general’s written opposition to the bill, forcing Abe to retract it.

Yet, the prosecutors’ image had remained at rock-bottom low as, for one, revelations of Kurokawa’s mahjong gambling with newspaper reporters in early 2021 – during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic – splashed newspaper and SNS top pages, disqualifying him to become the top prosecutor.

Hiroshi Morimoto, the Supreme public prosecutor general who previously handled the three highly visible cases, seem to be collaborating closely with the Tokyo prosecutors, especially Fuminori Ito, currently the Tokyo prosecutor-general, in investigating the latest scandals. 

Would the prosecutor duo zero in on Fumio Kishida, the prime minister, whose faction members also are not untainted in the scandal? 

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Tokyo public prosecutors make 1st raid in political finance scandal

TOKYO, Dec. 27, 2023—The Japanese judiciary Dec. 27, 2023 showed to the public it’s dead set to unearth the political donation scandal of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party by making the first unannounced raid of a lawmaker of the LDP faction of the late prime minister, Shinzo Abe, that’s at the center of investigation.

Japanese television stations Dec. 27 reported Tokyo public prosecutors entering the House of Representative office building and the Nagoya office of Yoshitaka Ikeda, who is a member of the late Abe’s faction for violation of the election financing law. Since the scandal surfaced last month, 

the prosecutors have held voluntary interviews of top LDP lawmakers.

Over the past two decades, the Abe faction has been believed setting quotas on its member politicians to sell election funds collection party tickets and ticket proceeds exceeding the quotas have been given to the politicians as funds that did not need to be booked in political funds reports as required by law.

The prosecutors by law are required to report to the minister of justice, the post being held by an LDP lawmaker, so they run the risk of being ordered to discontinue the probe. Yet, they are digging in their heels by taking a lead from U.S. Department of Justice investigators, such as special council Jack Smith, sources explained.

They also theorize that the Japanese investigators fully understand their limit as bureaucrats so want to tell the public that they did their best but could not go beyond.

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‘Made in Japan’ means inferior quality cars…what else?

TOKYO, Dec. 22, 2023—The ‘Made in Japan’ inscription on Japanese consumer industrial products meant their quality, for competitive pricing, is unmatched among comparable products manufactured by makers of other leading countries. They sold like hot cake – Seiko watches, SONY portable radios, Brother portable word processors, Honda motorcycles, Nikon cameras, semiconductors, Toyota cars… – to global consumers with whetting appetite for anything Japan.

That was during Japan’s short-lived go-go era that began petering out come the 21st century. What remains as Japan’s key consumer industrial export products now are automobiles and little else. And cars that may be seen as Japan’s last bastion of manufacturing might is on a steady slippery slope, as underscored by Toyota Motor Corp. key subsidiary Daihatsu Motor Co.’s cheating of government safety and quality certification tests (like those of U.S. NHTSA) that surfaced during the week of Dec. 17, 2023.

What the 34-year-long coverup incident, which Toyota has a majority control, means, analysts tell The Prospect, is 1) Toyota’s lax oversight of Daihatsu’s management over its manufacturing structure, 2) Daihatsu management’s ability to continue its intrinsic business acumen to outsmart Toyota management, 3) excessive government (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) standards and certification levels beyond what Daihatsu (and other Japanese automakers) could clear.

Akio Toyoda, chairman and de facto head of Toyota, was quoted by the BestCar’ magazine website Dec. 22, 2023 as saying, Daihatsu ‘needs to revamp it with the resolve to become a separate company (probably from Toyota).’ He went on to say that Daihatsu failed to solve problems outright (and ended up covering up).

Oh, ya?! What Toyoda said doesn’t make sense. Toyota owns Daihatsu’s shares – fully, 100 percent. It has been sending Toyota officials to Daihatsu for years and decades, with effective management control of Daihatsu by those Toyota executives sent to the Osaka-based company. Something, or many things, are wrong about what Akio reportedly said.

The Prospect’s analysis, however, is that the incident has underscored a rapid decline of Japan’s capacity at implementing just about everything, including auto manufacturing.

This year’s annual OECD data show that Japan’s productivity is close to the bottom of the rung among the 33 member economies. Japan notched 2 ranks down and now positions far lower than South Korea – even though the Japanese people believe in their prejudiced, historical myth that Korea is far inferior to the Japanese in most persuasions of human activities.

How it happened this way? The Japanese people’s arrogance, for one, of course, that they excel at manufacturing over Americans and Europeans (probably excluding Germans) like making Seiko mechanical watches and SONY transistor radios.

Since productivity comes along quality in symbiotic form, low productivity means low quality. That’s what hit Daihatsu – and probably other automakers, including Toyota.

In Japan, productivity data is gathered by the government, which gauges labor input and other data collected from the private sector. So, during Japan’s go-go era of the 1980s and early 1990s, the Japanese overworked, workers died ‘karoshi’ work to death, and in knee-jerk reactions, come the 2020s, the government slapped all types of tight work-related regulations telling companies and workers to ‘moderate’ work conditions.

Demoralized that they are restrained from completing projects they want to finish because of Labor Standard Law restrictions, workers left office work half-done, resumed it next day but with lukewarm passion and delivered it to their boss by cheating that it was complete. That’s what happened at Daihatsu and probably is happening at many other Japanese workplaces.

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Prosecutors nip at Japan lawmakers: Will they bite is doubtful

TOKYO, Dec. 21, 2023—It’s a familiar news video footage: Stern-faced men in dark suits enter the offices of politicians’ offices, and a few hours later they come out with cardboard boxes.

In the latest Tokyo public prosecutor swoop into the offices of the late-prime minister Shinzo Abe’s and other ruling Liberal Democratic Party faction offices, news reports said, most leading politicians, including the current PM, Kishida, have failed to book political donations in their campaign finance ledgers, using the money for private and other non-political purposes in violation of Japanese political donation law.

The prosecutors office has been fielding dozens of officers to search the LDP faction offices since earlier December, the media reported giving viewers and readers hopeful impressions that lawmaker heavyweights could be nabbed, leading to the collapse of the LDP that has been in power almost since the end of World War II in 1945.

In the what’s known as the Mori-tomo scandal surfaced in 2017, prosecutors searched 24/7 the offices that were speculated as implicated and stashing documents in secret. An official of the Ministry of Finance’s regional bureau, who whistle-blew the scandal, committed suicide, but the prosecutors stooped short of searching the key senior bureaucrat, Nobuhisa Sagawa, giving into PM Abe’s pressure.

Will the prosecutors go throughout the latest scandal, even directly searching the offices of incumbent ministers and other LDP heavyweights? It’s not likely, not because of political pressure, even though Kishida’s public support has plummeted to barely above 10 percent.

Kakuei Tanaka was the only prime minister that was arrested in post-war Japan, I July 1976 for his involvement in a bribery scandal for greasing Lockheed Corp.’s sale of Tristar commercial aircraft to All-Nippon Airways. Tanaka was arrested for violation of the Foreign Exchange Act, not for accepting bribery. He died during the trial and the case closed without court decisions.

In numerous other payoff and political campaign-finance scandals, there have been no arrest of or heavy punishment of political heavyweights. Shin Kanemaru, an LDP top lawmaker in the 1990s, who received billions of yen from donors illegally, was acquitted.

A former prosecutor in a recent television interview explained limits to how far prosecutor investigations can go.

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U.S. shows weakness everywhere as China gears further SE Asia expansion

TOKYO, Dec. 13, 2023—Joe Biden met China’s Xi Jingpin, Isrtael’s Benjamin Natanyahu, Ukraine’s Volodymyl Zelenskyy, India’s Narendra Modi, the Philippines’ Ferdinand Marcos, Mexico’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, and dozens of leaders from other countries this year for solving problems that the United States alone has the capacity to resolve: ending wars, preempting potential conflicts, human and drug trafficking, human rights, and climate change mitigation, among them. Understandably, China is watching Biden closely, and something might have clicked to Beijing… It’s the reason behind China’s fresh hegemony.

The White House’s Nov. 15, 2023 readout after the Biden-Xi meeting in San Francisco said the two leaders agreed to cooperate in combatting illicit drug manufacturing and trafficking, including fentanyl, resume high-level military communication, affirmed the need to address the risks of AI, and maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea and East China Sea.ß

Over the past two months since the Israel-Hamas war erupted, Biden told Natanyahu to prtect civilians in phone calls and meetings.

In September, Biden visited India for a one-on-one with Modi. They ‘reemphasized that the shared value of freedom, democracy, human rights, inclusion, pluralism and equal opportunities for all citizens are critical,’ according to the White House readout from that meeting. Before that, in May, Biden welcomed Marcos to the While House, with both leaders agreeing to hold joint military exercises, and Marcos offered to allow U.S. military presence in the Philippines as a show of his country’s counterforce against China. Biden and the Mexican president discussed illicit drugs and migration entering the United States n November.

In the COP28 climate change negotiations having been in session over more than the past week in Dubai, Biden did not show up, thus empowering the powerful OPEC and OPECplus economies to overwhelm outcries of Tuvalu and many other low-lying countries to keep global temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

And this week, Ukraine’s Zelenskyy’s plea for more U.S. aide sounded hollow inside the Beltway as Republicans muffled Biden’s pledge for additional funding.

It’s probably no coincidence that heavily-armed Chinese coast guard ships blasted Philippines fishing boats with water cannons near the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, the area that Manila had long occupied for fishing.

Adam Kinzinger, a former Republican House representative, said in his blogpost that what’s happening in Washington looks like a revisit to post-WWI Europe, when the U.S. attitude toward Hitler was that what the Nazi’s were doing was remilitarizing the Rhineland was in Deutscheland, not in other territory. 

Obama deserves to be scorned for missing the opportunity ti staunch Russian expansion to Crimea, Kinzinger said, but ‘the very people who attacked him for weakness now advocate the same policy.’

The whole Biden White House ineptitude is being closed watched by…China as the U.S. weakness and the reason for Beijing to make a go at the Philippines fishing boats, and then other areas of the South and East China seas, possibly including Senkaku Islands claimed both by China and Japan as a precursor to China7s invasion of Taiwan.

All the more encouraging for the Chinese military brass, the Pentagon was forced to ground indefinitely the entire Osprey aircraft fleet following the crash accident near souther Japan in November. The Ospreys were positioned as a key defense fleet for the U.S. military wings.

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Japan’s hopeless monetary policy decoupling

TOKYO, Dec. 7, 2023—By now, Japan, the world’s single country that continues zero interest rate policy, should have begun returning to normalcy corresponding to rising prices sparked by the Ukraine-Russia war and a sharp yen devaluation. That expected policy shift is complicated by stabilizing price trends of recent months and the Bank of Japan who is virtually taken hostage by the Ministry of Finance bureaucracy.

Anecdotal evidence, random surveys taken by the media, and retail companies’ share price performances have shown that goods prices, including groceries and nonperishables, jumped 30-40 percent in the latter part of 2023 compared with the spring of 2022 when Russia began invading Ukraine. Japanese government statistics do not back up those street data in a dubious mismatch that raises speculation about government data fabrication, as happened widely a few years ago.

In fact, from milk, gasoline to electric products, in-store prices appear to have been raised by at least 30 percent from 1-1/2 years ago. Hourly labor costs also are going up by more than 10 percent, as 24 percent of employers said they are raising this year-end bonus payments.

On the Diet (parliament) floor, lawmakers have been debating extending financial support to consumers such as a continuation of gasoline subsidies and childcare. PM Fumio Kishida responded by offering to give out more support. 

But government data have been showing only modest rises of products and services while Bank of Japan officials have been repeating that Japan’s prices have yet to enter the sustainable 2-percent a year growth trajectory. BOJ Gov. Ueda Dec. 7 told a parliamentary session that the bank cannot decide when to end its zero-rate policy. Ueda spoke after his deputies, including those sent to the bank from the Ministry of Finance, said they didn’t think Japan’s price trends are extraordinarily high, presumably to quiet Ueda from saying beyond the deputies had said.

For the time being, thanks to a number of reasons, prices seem to be showing some stability but dormant inflationary pressures that are outside government data collection nets are everywhere in Japan. In 2024, those pressures may shoot from the ground like asparagus. Read what they are over the coming months.

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Risks of over-dependence on behemoths

TOKYO, Dec. 1, 2023—Elon Musk is teaching us something important about size, dominance, and famous brand loyalty: Keep a friendly arms-length distance from behemoths and avoid over-dependence on them.

Musk Nov. 29, 2023 sad at a New York Times DealBook Summit, ‘Go xxxx yourself!,’ to one of the biggest advertisers of X, formerly Twitter, according to media reports, analyzing that X’s survival is being timed.

Whether Musk’s expletives reverberate to his Tesla, Space-X and other businesses is unknown but in light of the U.S. government’s over-dependence on the two companies, damage is likely to be limited. NASA relies extensively for launching space probes and rovers on Space-X rockets, the Pentagon needs Musk’s Starlink satellites, and the White House’s transport electrification program needs Tesla’s charging stations, which commands more than 60 percent of U.S. charging units.

So Musk is effectively the un-appointed top secretary of the While House, like Henry Kissinger was for Richard Nixon and other presidents, his businesses woven inexplicably and tightly in American politics to society.

That’s what Musk is telling us to rethink more loudly, thank you. Over coming years, lawmakers, businesses, and consumers may pause before making choices for befriending with behemoths that dominate everything, from politics, marketplaces and products. Some already learned the perils of over-dependence on a single supplier: Germany on Russia for natural gas and the United States on China for toys and a whole gamut of consumer products.

Apple’s iPhones are another product that dominates some smartphone markets, including the U.S. and Japan, where market shares are 56 percent and 46 percent, respectively, though the levels are not irreversible. In a highly competitive global auto market, Toyota Motor is not a dominant existence, except in Japan, where its share has always exceeded 50 percent, empowering it to be the retail price setter.

What happens when a single business controls nearly all of a marketplace, like Amazon’s cloud service in Japan with over 90 percent market share of public-sector cloud services? Competition disappears, and even though the Japanese government recently picked a small, obscure IT company for a government cloud service, whether it can continue for long is seen with skeptical eyes.

In such a setting, breaking up monopolies may be one of the first policy tools likely to be considered, as already being mulled by the Department of Justice regarding Google, Amazon and other big techs.

While shying away from the dominant force, Toyota’s position in Japan can be comparable to Musk. Not only CEOs of rival Japanese automakers, politicians and business executives look up to Akio Toyoda, the company’s chair, when commenting on industrial policies, clearly with the view that the Japanese industry is underpinned by Toyota’s prosperity and absent it, the Japanese economy would be at the bottom of the OECD ranking.

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Global GHG emissions issues need less mobility

TOKYO, Nov. 30, 2023—On this opening day of the COP28 conference on climate change, The Prospect is doing a number of stock-taking.

Nearly 2-1/2 centuries ago after steam engines were invented, human lifestyles dramatically changed from the pre-industrial period when people walked or used animals to reach destinations and make goods. They were given technological miracles of coal-powered ships and locomotives that traveled thousands of miles and kilos away from home with hundreds of them boarding with piles of cargoes that horses could not possibly carry. Fuels too have changed, from health-ruining coal, to fossil fuel and natural gas that more recently are increasingly replenished by renewable energies to stem greenhouse gas emissions and conserve finite fossil fuels. 

More automobiles are powered by electricity, aircraft fly by biofuels; homes, offices and factories are heated by solar and wind power; electric and electronic devices consume less energy; automobile and other industries are trying transition to hydrogen society; governments, businesses, NGOs are promoting environment social and governance (ESG) investments and setting sustainable development goals (SDGs). Elon Musk’s Space-X rockets are re-usable and less fuel-consuming than NASA’s.

Everything sounds good, environmentally friendly. The world is headed in the eco-friendly trajectory in which carbon dioxide emissions are supposedly decreasing by now, helping achieve cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent by 2030 compared with 2019 level to enable meeting the Paris Accord goal of keeping global temperature rise at 1.5 celsius by 2030 and net zero by 2050.

Cold reality or predictions by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) is that global GHG emissions in 2030 would rise by 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius, or nearly double the target temperature rise of 1.5C. And by 2050, temperatures could rise 2.8C if proactive measures are not implemented.

It’s clear that energy consumption needs to be reduced more aggressively than what had been done with efficiency enhancement technologies and transition to renewables – meaning most past efforts stopped short of meeting and far more aggressive steps are needed.

UNEP, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other multilateral entities are advocating much faster shift to renewables, reductions of subsidies for fossil fuels, and energy use efficiency improvements such as the transition to EVs and heat pumps.

Those are welcome moves yet cannot be a core policy as proven by historical growth of human energy appetite. There were only 4 or 5 times that year-on-year global energy demand decreased, the last time being the 2020-22 COVID19 pandemic period. In fact, demand for crude oil alone in 2023 would likely rise over 2022 to a record high, according to Statista, a data analysis website. 

Global natural gas demand in 2023 would be ‘flat to uncertain’ because of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war yet was likely to be higher than in 2022 if the geopolitical situation was stable, according to the International Energy Agency.

What the situation is calling:

Our take is that no matter what and how nations and businesses do, there’s going to be a limit to curb global energy appetite, including fossil fuels, as planet Earth is obsessed about mobility and luxury of cozy habitat. Mobility entails that a much bigger share of the global population will travel afar from their homes, not only in their home countries but others. China’s population of 1.4 billion hardly traveled abroad until 10 years ago or so. Now at least 1/10th of the people do, and they also drive long distances in China be on EVs or gas-powered cars. To power EVs, China is burning coal and oil. Other countries, including Japan, are doing much the same.

It’s about time that the topics of mobility for travels and logistics be discussed internationally from multiple aspects, including the revisit to small communities, car-free movements, and deployment of bicycles as a core means of community transport.

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Hats off to India’s successful rescue of tunnel construction workers

TOKYO, Nov. 29, 2023—Though details are sketchy and unverifiable, the reported successful rescue of all 41 workers from the collapse of tunnel construction is more than being reckoned with as miraculous and great.

Just like the country’s landing of a Moon rover, Chandrayaan-3, on the planet’s south pole, India’s technicians registered their tenacity and will power to save the 41 lives – who could well have been abandoned as dispensable low-wage labor had it happened a decade earlier.

It appears, to me, to be a combined yield of cumulative technology improvements the country has built up over decades and prime minister Narendra Modi’s policy campaign to uplift his country’s global image.

It’s an analogy in stark contrast to what would be like if a similar accident happens in Japan: The prime minister’s office would convene an emergency cabinet meeting, instructing heads of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ Fire and Disaster Management Agency, the Ministry of Defense, the National Police Agency, the Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare, and possibly other ministries that can offer technical and other assistances to come to rescue work.

In reality, though, that emergency cabinet meeting would caution that rescue staff to be dispatched newly to the disaster scene should be extra careful not be get involved in secondary disaster, so those staff would be at the scene but are not likely to engage in the real rescue work that is likely being done by those that were initially sent to the scene.

Even though there has been no comparable disasters in Japan for years, those trapped in the (hypothetical) accident thus may not gain access to much-needed medicine, water, food, oxygen and other vital needs in time since non-first-arrived rescuers may not be allowed to jump into the scene by risking their lives.

Plus, one can speculate from the photos of the Indian tunnel construction site that Indian engineers might have acquired advanced skills in drilling safely and other necessary arrangements as they did in landing the moon rover.

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