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TOKYO, March 25, 2020—China is extending support in helping coronavirus pandemic-struck countries with its savvy ancient strategy that few can reject. As widely reported, Beijing has been sending medical teams to Italy, Brazil, African countries and others. Now, a Chinese municipality is pledging to reciprocate favors rendered to it by a Japanese municipality when it was threatened by coronavirus – by 10 times.
On March 24, the Chinese embassy in Tokyo tweeted that the Xinwu ward office of Wuxi City in China’s costal province of Jiangsu has pledged to send 50,000 facial masks in phases to Japan’s Toyokawa City in central Japan. That’s more 10 times of 4,500 masks and protection equipment that Toyokawa sent to Xinwu on Feb. 4.
China has a long tradition of returning favors it was given by someone by more than wha was given. This ancient tradition was emulated in Japan. In the feudal period, a samurai lord would send pales of salt that his enemy badly needed for his soldiers in an expression of mutual respect.
Xinwu pledged its generous return of Toyokawa’s favor in response to Toyokawa’s request to reimburse the leftovers of the 4,500 masks for utter want of supply in Japan. Toyokawa and Wuxi are sister cities. The Wuxi city sent to Toyokawa photos of facial masks via the China embassy promising to send 50,000 pieces saying, ‘this is the foundation of the China-Japan friendship,’ Japanese media reports said. Toyokawa’s medical facilities were projected to run out of facial mask supplies in May.

TOKYO, March 25, 2020—In less than a week and on March 29, Japan will commence operating a new landing route at downtown Tokyo’s Haneda International Airport with total disregard of warnings and complaints about steep aircraft ascent/descent dangers and noise from pilots and residents.

In inclement weather conditions such as strong winds, aircraft would have to descend at 3.45 degree angle, instead of the level tolerated by large aircraft pilots of 3 degrees, according to the Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport’s website. It’s the angle that made pilots’ blood pressure shoot when they had to land at Hong Kong’s Kai Tak airport had been in operations until the early 21^st century.

Local residents under the new route, under which tens of thousands of residential homes are clustered, have been objecting loudly to the new route and the steep angles. And yet, the ministry bureaucracy, with the unwavering support of prime minister Shinzo Abe, stonewalled and ignore the pleas.

Why? Tokyo has a couple of more airports, smaller in size with shorter runways but can accommodate C130 and fighter jets that the U.S. Air Force uses actively at one of them in the western side of Haneda, called Yokota. Abe does not want to upset his relationship with Donald Trump, so he had instructed the ministry bureaucrats to reject whatever objections are from any parties.

For their part, the Japanese bureaucracy does not want to impair their public image and reputation as tough, ruthless, modern samurai that administer the country’s affairs, despite the fact that it is bureaucrats’ stubborn, outdated pride that dragged Japan’s status as a global tech leader to one of many countries.

Following are what local Japanese news reports wrote in recent weeks:

‘(A)t a March 2 meeting at the ministry for airlines to address the new routes, pilots and airline administrators expressed confusion and anger over the changes, the financial daily Nikkei wrote. Officials repeatedly heard comments such as “The ministry should show a plan that’s uniform for everyone,” and “What is equipment that can’t handle the new method supposed to do?” from people in attendance.

The root of confusion is the existence of two angles of descent — 3.45 degrees and 3 degrees.

The International Civil Aviation Organization recommends planes land at a 3-degree angle to guarantee both safety and acceptable levels of noise pollution. Landing at greater than 3 degrees is permitted when there are mountains or high-rise buildings in the area, and at airports for small and medium-sized aircraft.

In its effort to reduce noise pollution in anticipation of increased flights, the transport ministry last summer announced it was considering raising the angle of descent for new routes to 3.45 degrees in good weather. This decision increased landing difficulty, but the plan was made official in December without public debate.

A pilot industry group, the International Federation of Air Line Pilots’ Associations, voiced concern about the change in a January letter, saying the steeper angle will “potentially lead to increased occurrences of hard landings and long landings.”

These concerns appeared to prove true when, during a trial run last month, an Air Canada plane was unable to land at 3.45 degrees, and instead landed at Narita Airport, about 60 km east of central Tokyo. U.S. carrier Delta held off joining the tests as it had not finished preparing for them. Many airlines seem to have insufficient training in simulators.

However, it appears at least two Japanese airlines discovered a workaround to the situation. ANA and JAL argued to the transport ministry that if planes start to descend at more than 3.45 degrees, but from 1,500 feet finish their descent along the normal 3-degree flight path, the problems of a steep landing angle and increased noise pollution would be solved.

According to public documents requested and obtained by Nikkei, as well as sources familiar with the situation, the ministry allowed the airlines’ planes to use this approach last summer.

ANA Holdings unit ANA and JAL presented the proposed method to pilots in accordance with their agreement with the transport ministry. But overseas airlines, upon realizing this, are in a rush to follow in the two companies’ footsteps. The transport ministry lacks consistency. They stressed the need of 3.45 degree landings at the meeting on March 2. But after Kazuyoshi Akaba, the transport minister, met with pilots from ANA and JAL on March 4, the ministry said it would be possible for airlines to use the workaround method.

In this instance, too, overseas carriers were left out of the loop. Without consistent rules, airlines are unable to develop frameworks for stable operations, including fixing their landings and dealing with warning systems.

“When you need to make an emergency landing, you have to think that you’ll be moved from Haneda to another airport,” said a pilot who flies in and out of Narita Airport.

For airlines, a return to the usual landing method would be best, but the transport ministry is not planning to give up on the 3.45 degree method. While the ministry seems to be using noise pollution as an excuse for the change, some analysts say not much will change on the ground.

“It wouldn’t reduce noise more than about 2 decibels,” said Toshihito Matsui, a professor at Hokkaido University who specializes in noise pollution. “You wouldn’t be able to tell the difference.”

Instead, people familiar with the situation point to nearby U.S. military presence as the real reason for the change. Just before moving into the landing position, planes sometimes cross into the airspace of the Yokota air base. To avoid any potential collisions, incoming aircraft need to ascend to high altitudes. If ANA and JAL’s airplanes are landing differently, it could be said to be a victory over this issue.

“All I can say is that planes will cross into Yokota air space, and the Japanese side will be responsible for controlling them,” a senior transport ministry official told Nikkei, without clarifying the relationship between the U.S. military presence and the change in the angle of descent.

The new routes will increase Haneda’s annual international arrivals and departures from 60,000 to 99,000. If the transport ministry does not clear up the situation and confusion among the airlines continues, demand among tourists to come to Japan, to say nothing of Haneda’s position as an internal hub airport, may be in trouble.

Japan Times, an English daily, wrote: ‘The transport ministry said Thursday (March 13, 2020) it has completed tests for new flight paths to Haneda Airport, which involved arriving aircraft flying over central Tokyo at a low altitude for the first time.

The tests were conducted over seven days between Feb. 2 and Feb. 12. A total of 520 aircraft arrived using the new routes, the ministry said in a statement.

The government plans to officially launch the new landing routes for about three hours a day — between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m. — starting on March 29. The move will accommodate 50 more international routes per day to help Haneda better compete with larger global hubs in Asia like Singapore’s Changi Airport.

Some residents are opposed to the new routes, which pass over areas including Shinagawa and Shibuya wards, due to concerns about noise and fears of parts falling from aircraft.

A government measurement showed 81 decibels at an elementary school in Minato Ward on Feb. 4, a similar volume level to that of a busy road.

To reduce the noise impact, the government plans to have aircraft use a steep 3.5 degree approach in clear weather and when there are southerly winds. In rough weather conditions, arriving planes will approach at a more standard 3-degree angle.

Hiroshi Sugie, an aviation expert and former Japan Airlines pilot, said on Thursday that the steep approach presents a challenge for pilots. It will make it more difficult to reduce the aircraft’s speed upon touchdown and increases the risk of a tail strike, where the back of the plane strikes the ground.

“From my long flight experience, Hong Kong’s old Kai Tak airport used to be the most challenging for pilots,” Sugie told reporters at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan. “But from now on, pilots from around the world will likely see Haneda as the most difficult airport in the world.”

Kiwami Omura, head of a group of residents opposing the new routes, said at the same news conference that the move using airspace over densely populated Tokyo runs counter to the global trend of avoiding such areas. Omura also noted the risk that ice or other objects could fall from the planes.

The transport ministry says it has not received strong complaints from commercial airlines over the steep approach. But an Air Canada flight had to divert to Narita Airport in Chiba Prefecture on Feb. 2 because it didn’t have approval from Canadian authorities to conduct the steep approach using the area navigation (RNAV) system, which is different from the more common Instrument Landing System (ILS), a transport ministry official said. But Canadian authorities have since then given the airline the green light, and Air Canada is preparing to use the new route from late March, the official added.

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TOKYO, March 23, 2020—Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe March 23 conceded that his country may acquiesce to postponing the Tokyo Olympic Games, scheduled to start in late July.
On March 22, the International Olympic Committee released a statement that said the committee would consider ‘modifying existing operational plans’ for the games from July 24 and ‘also for changes to the start date of the Games.’
‘If that (holding the games as scheduled) is difficult, we would have to decide postponing by considering (the health and safety) of athletes,’ Abe replied in response to a question at a House of Councilors budget committee meeting March 23 morning. Yet, ‘I share the same stance as the IOC that cancellation is not our option,’ Abe emphasized.
The IOC’s March 22 statement was titled in uppercase letters: ‘TO SAFEGUARD THE HEALTH OF ALL INVOLVED AND TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTAINMENT OF COVID-19, THE EXECUTIVE BOARD (EB) OF THE INTERNATIONAL OLYMPIC COMMITTEE (IOC) TODAY ANNOUNCED THAT THE IOC WILL STEP UP ITS SCENARIO-PLANNING FOR THE OLYMPIC GAMES TOKYO 2020.’
‘These scenarios relate to modifying existing operational plans for the Games to go ahead on 24 July 2020, and also for changes to the start date of the Games. This step will allow better visibility of the rapidly changing development of the health situation around the world and in Japan. It will serve as the basis for the best decision in the interest of the athletes and everyone else involved…This led the (IOC) executive board B to the conclusion that the IOC needs to take the next step in its scenario-planning.’
IOC also said that if to postpone the games, it would have to win the commitment of the game broadcasters – NBCUniversal, which pays ¾ of broadcasting rights to IOC, and partner sponsors, many of them American companies.
IOC said it would complete discussions about the fate of the games ‘within the next four weeks,’ and shared its position with Abe saying, ‘cancellation is not on the agenda.’

–By Toshio Aritake

TOKYO, Jan. 30, 2020—What has long seemed a sure bet for Sheldon Adelson’s aspiration to win a license to operate in the Japanese-government authorized casinos that are to open by the mid-2020 seem to have become iffy, what with the arrest of prime minister Shinzo Abe’s administration’s lawmaker and parliamentary deliberations zeroing on Abe’s potential engagement with the casino mogul.
On Jan. 29 and 30, 2020, the Abe administration held the first convention on casinos and integrated resort facilities in Yokohama, south of Tokyo. Adelson’s Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, Genting Singapore, Galaxy Entertainment were among the leading casinos that have signed up. About 40 people opposing the building of large casinos in Yokohama picketed in front of the convention site of Pacifico Yokohama. (https://www.ir-expo.jp/yokohama-ir/)
The convention came days after the Abe government launched the ‘Casino Management Committee’ within the government to work out legislative and regulatory details on licensing, gambling equipment, addiction, casino locations, and do’s and don’ts – and the arrest of a Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker, Tsukasa Akimoto, who was put in charge of the integrated resort project. Akimoto allegedly received bribes from a China company, 500.com, that was aspiring to make bids in a integrated casino.
Now the legislative process seems to have stumbled over the relationships of lawmakers with casino operators, including Abe himself. At a parliament session on Jan. 29, opposition lawmakers questioned the ethical validity of lawmakers’ meetings with casino executives, and Abe replied that his administration would proceed based on impartiality a d transparency.
But his comments are questionable given what he reportedly talked with Trump after Abe’s visit to the U.S. in February 2017. (https://features.propublica.org/trump-inc-podcast/sheldon-adelson-casino-magnate-trump-macau-and-japan/)
Adding to the uncertainty of the casino project is Abe’s scandal – his third major one – over the use of taxpayer money used for inviting his electorate supporters to a official government cherry blossom garden party.

–Toshio Aritake

TOKYO, Jan. 29, 2020—Is Apple Inc. a China hostage, or is it just feigning its next move?
On Jan. 28, Apple reported an11 pct October-December quarter net income rise of $22.2 billion on a 9 pct revenue growth to $91.8 billion year-on-year, both record highs, on strong worldwide sales of iPhone 11, Apple Watch, and services.
At a conference call, Apple CEO Tim Cook, asked about the Wuhan coronavirus effect on his business, confirmed that China business operations – retail sales and production – are affected, in Wuhan and outside the city, yet he said the virus scare’s influence on the Apple supply chain was ‘less clear at this time.’ Apple said it has ample inventory of parts to continue manufacturing.
China is effectively Apple’s mother factory for much of its product lines especially iPhones, assembling parts and components manufactured by some 200 suppliers in China, Taiwan, the United States, Japan and elsewhere. Taiwan’s Foxconn and Asia Vital Components are operating in Wuhan, and a total of about 40 suppliers are dotted about in five Chinese provinces. Apple hires about 5 million Chinese workers in China.
Apple’s fat profit margin reflects in part its management prowess to optimize the economy-of-scale merits by consolidating iPhone manufacturing operations in China while tapping low-cost Chinese labor. Apple also clearly sees China a green new retail market for its products, its share much lower than elsewhere for iOS devices in a largely android-skewed Chinese market, unlike matured markets like the United States, Japan and Europe.
All these may be the reasons why Cook demurred on the impact of the coronavirus scare, sounding like Apple is like hostage of China, its iPhone manufacturing trapped there and nowhere else because of heavy concentration there. Even so, if the pandemic escalates and spreads wider than the SARs epidemic, Cook may find manufacturing diversification necessary. Where would he go to? Vietnam, Thailand, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia? Or to the United States as Trump so demands (won’t happen).

–Toshio Aritake

TOKYO, Jan. 28, 2020—The Wuhan, China coronavirus pandemic is set to threaten the global supply chain, Japan’s Nikkei newspaper reported in its front page Jan. 28. The threat would become real, it said, in response to the Chinese government’s order to extend the Chinese New Year holiday season for several days until almost mid-February.

WHAT’S NEXT: In the immediate future, led by the United States, which historically keeps limited inventory of consumer and industrial goods, supply chain destination economies of Europe and Asia should experience excruciating shortages and non-delivery of parts and components from their Chinese manufacturing plants.

Since the pandemic is forecast by western scientists to peak around April to May, tight supply and delivery conditions are set to be prolonged for weeks to come, during which time manufacturing of electronic, machinery and a wide swath of industrial and consumer products would be destined to remain sluggish. That could mean price rises. That the gold price is going through the roof daily now while the U.S. dollar is slipping against key currencies may be testimony to inflationary pressure resulting from coronavirus.

WHERE CHINA STANDS: The Wuhan coronavirus epidemic may be far less threatening than Ebola, SARS and MERs. A big difference is that while the three past epidemic threats were swirling around the world, China had not been the global manufacturing factory – yet. Now China is, churning out every conceivable industrial and consumer products – parts for iPhones, PCs, toys, steel, plastics, and so on – and exporting them the world over.

LOOKING BEYOND: In responses to Trump’s U.S.-China trade war, U.S., European and Japanese manufacturers had developed second thoughts about concentrating mid-stream operations in China alone, as illustrated by shifts of Uniqlo and other light product makers to Vietnam and other Asian economies. The virus scare is set to encourage this shift further away from China.

WHAT’S IN THE FUTURE: China is in the midst of an industrial revolution to morph into a hitech, eco-friendly country from low tech, heavy manufacturers. Epitomized by its successful transition into a cashless, EV transport modern society that would be powered by 5G internet networks, Chinese leader Xi Jinping may be confident that China can ride out the current scare. Can he?

–Toshio Aritake

Jan. 27, 2020–It remains probable even with the coronavirus. If the epidemic is contained, that is. Question is how to analyze it and what happens after the post-30k: Is it a bubble or not, and if either, what happens next? My analogy is, YES It is a bubble BUT its effect in the entire U.S. economy/finance landscape is limited to within the financial and a few other marketplaces, such as urban properties, some arts (paintings but not necessarily antiques), and posh eateries. So, if/when it bursts, it may not look like the ugly great tokyo bursting of 1981. if/when the bursting looks imminent, the federal reserve would ease credit policy again, as close as to zero, but that accommodative, low monetary policy posture may not be sustainable and the Fed might again tighten credit as goods price inflation pressure would be likely to sprout up like asparagus shoots within a year or so, compounded by the U.S. tariffs on Chinese products and quietly rising U.S. minimum wages and other labor costs.
aside from esoteric, technical factors, I think ‘spiky’ conditions of the U.S. stock and bond markets are totally unwelcome to both sides of Congress and the American public, since Americans wealth and assets — social security, public, private pensions, annuities, funds like the OPC scholarship fund and numerous others, are so heavily invested in the markets directly and indirectly via direct stock and bond trading, ETFs, etc., etc. Stable and preferably high financial instrument prices are what the U.S. wants and their collapse cannot be tolerated. If that happens, it will drag all other global markets, including China’s, and in the next restoration phase, the U.S. may be dethroned as the No. 1 global power and replaced by China(?!) in a total different world order where non-caucasian nations hold power.

Just a thought.

–Toshio Aritake

Chino City, Japan, Jan. 3, 2020—Over the past few decades, China has been making inroads to Japan by way of increasing exports of goods manufactured with Japanese technology, buying real estate in rural Japan, sending millions of tourists and other legally-accepted means. In the past few years, with much confidence and putting aside the principle of mutual respect, the Chinese began directly infiltrating into Japanese politics, bribing Japanese lawmakers that are in charge of a grand national casino project espoused by prime minister Shinzo Abe.
Japanese police arrested legislative House Of Representative Tsukasa Akimoto, who is a key member of Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party’s integrated resort project, and the Japanese media in late December reported that a Chinese company, 500.com, paid a total of 20 million yen ($190,000) ,smuggled to Japan from China in violation of Japanese law, to five Japanese lawmakers (https://japantoday.com/category/politics/update1-five-other-lawmakers-may-be-involved-in-casino-bribery-scandal). Police also arrested in December a consultant for the Chinese company, based in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, that once served as a Urazoe City, Okinawa and LDP member, according to the reports.
Akimoto and four other lawmakers, including an incumbent legislative vice minister and a former Abe cabinet LDP member, received the bribes in 2017 through a local tourist agency, the reports said. They were connected closely to Abe’s IR project and functioned as go-betweens between the 500.com and the village office of Rusutsu in the northernmost main island of Hokkaido that is one of localities trying to bid for the IR project. The Rusutsu Report is perhaps the largest Japanese resort area.
The Japanese law on political funds prohibits foreign governments, corporations and individuals to make donations. That the 500.com paid to the five lawmakers in a roundabout way reflects that the company tried to be law-compliant. As of the end of December, Akimoto reported denied receiving bribes from the Chinese company.
Affluent Chinese are purchasing Hokkaido properties including the world-famous ski resort Niseko, their purchases in Niseko clashing head-in with Australian and New Zealanders opening hotels, restaurants and other attractions. Property prices there are as high as those in Tokyo now.

Toshio Aritake

Chino City, Japan, Dec. 17, 2019—Sometime this week, more than 180 states representing nearly 90 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions are expected to agree at a Madrid, Spain meeting on nitty-gritty details of climate change mitigation, the regime worked out as the Paris Agreement.
Conspicuously absent at what is known as the COP25 conference (25th conference of parties) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the United States save a few from the U.S. administration virtually as observers,as well as representatives of U.S. states and businesses, according to reports from Madrid.
Washington announced its intention from the Paris Agreement (COP21) known at the instruction of president Trump in 2017. In November 2019, Washington submitted its formal intention to pull out. But withdrawal cannot be made before November 4, 2020, days before the U.S. presidential election. The COP25 conference was scheduled for Chile but due to unrest in the country, it is being held in Madrid.
The Madrid meeting is being extended beyond the final day of Dec. 13 because of differences on climate change mitigation policies, notably on market mechanisms, between developed and developing states, such as the European Union and India, according to news reports from Madrid.
Brazil, China and India are demanding that emission credits recognized before 2019 be included in the Paris Agreement scheduled to take effect in January 2020. A majority of other COP21 signatories are objecting to the demand, according to the reports.
The signatories also are divided about the UNFCCC proposal to submit their respective 2030 GHG reduction targets by February 2020, the reports said.
Reports coming out of Madrid are devoid of references to the United States and The Prospect’s random checking of U.S. news entities also showed hardly any articles from Spain, excluding some international editions such as ones of CNN and Reuters – which is hardly a surprise given that the U.S. media attention is fixated on the Trump impeachment and little else. And most Americans do not seem to care about what’s happening in the rest of the world.
I’s not a healthy development. Scoundrels know how to seize on opportunities when their enemies are busy fighting against their home ground nemesis. China and Russia are in hegemony modes giving deaf ears to U.S. criticisms of human rights abuse against the millions of Uighurs and Hong Kong democracy protestors and Russia’s moves in the Middle East as well as its refusal to return four Japanese northern islands. Myanmar also is committing continuing atrocities against the Muslim Rohingyas. China also is rapidly expanding into the South China Sea and Japanese defense experts (retired) have said that China may take control of the disputed Senkaku Island in the East China Sea. Against most of those developments, Trump barks like a whining Afghan dog and can do hardly anything else, except building the walls between the U.S. and Mexico.
So clearly, the United States is becoming a visible inward-looking country and the move may become even more pronounced when Trump gets a second term next year.

–Toshio Aritake