TOKYO, Nov. 30, 2023—On this opening day of the COP28 conference on climate change, The Prospect is doing a number of stock-taking.
Nearly 2-1/2 centuries ago after steam engines were invented, human lifestyles dramatically changed from the pre-industrial period when people walked or used animals to reach destinations and make goods. They were given technological miracles of coal-powered ships and locomotives that traveled thousands of miles and kilos away from home with hundreds of them boarding with piles of cargoes that horses could not possibly carry. Fuels too have changed, from health-ruining coal, to fossil fuel and natural gas that more recently are increasingly replenished by renewable energies to stem greenhouse gas emissions and conserve finite fossil fuels.
More automobiles are powered by electricity, aircraft fly by biofuels; homes, offices and factories are heated by solar and wind power; electric and electronic devices consume less energy; automobile and other industries are trying transition to hydrogen society; governments, businesses, NGOs are promoting environment social and governance (ESG) investments and setting sustainable development goals (SDGs). Elon Musk’s Space-X rockets are re-usable and less fuel-consuming than NASA’s.
Everything sounds good, environmentally friendly. The world is headed in the eco-friendly trajectory in which carbon dioxide emissions are supposedly decreasing by now, helping achieve cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent by 2030 compared with 2019 level to enable meeting the Paris Accord goal of keeping global temperature rise at 1.5 celsius by 2030 and net zero by 2050.
Cold reality or predictions by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) is that global GHG emissions in 2030 would rise by 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius, or nearly double the target temperature rise of 1.5C. And by 2050, temperatures could rise 2.8C if proactive measures are not implemented.
It’s clear that energy consumption needs to be reduced more aggressively than what had been done with efficiency enhancement technologies and transition to renewables – meaning most past efforts stopped short of meeting and far more aggressive steps are needed.
UNEP, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other multilateral entities are advocating much faster shift to renewables, reductions of subsidies for fossil fuels, and energy use efficiency improvements such as the transition to EVs and heat pumps.
Those are welcome moves yet cannot be a core policy as proven by historical growth of human energy appetite. There were only 4 or 5 times that year-on-year global energy demand decreased, the last time being the 2020-22 COVID19 pandemic period. In fact, demand for crude oil alone in 2023 would likely rise over 2022 to a record high, according to Statista, a data analysis website.
Global natural gas demand in 2023 would be ‘flat to uncertain’ because of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war yet was likely to be higher than in 2022 if the geopolitical situation was stable, according to the International Energy Agency.
What the situation is calling:
Our take is that no matter what and how nations and businesses do, there’s going to be a limit to curb global energy appetite, including fossil fuels, as planet Earth is obsessed about mobility and luxury of cozy habitat. Mobility entails that a much bigger share of the global population will travel afar from their homes, not only in their home countries but others. China’s population of 1.4 billion hardly traveled abroad until 10 years ago or so. Now at least 1/10th of the people do, and they also drive long distances in China be on EVs or gas-powered cars. To power EVs, China is burning coal and oil. Other countries, including Japan, are doing much the same.
It’s about time that the topics of mobility for travels and logistics be discussed internationally from multiple aspects, including the revisit to small communities, car-free movements, and deployment of bicycles as a core means of community transport.
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