TOKYO, March 8, 2020—The International Olympic Committee and Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe are saying that the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games will be held as scheduled in July 2020 but the situation is gaining fluidity day by day, and as of this writing, all facts and signs are that the games will be canceled.
IOC executive board’s March 3 statement, a rare paper, tried to affirm the games will be held as scheduled.
‘The IOC EB encourages all athletes to continue to prepare for the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020.’
IOC chairman Thomas Bach said at a news conference released on YouTube March 3 that IOC was ‘fully committed’ to the holding of the Tokyo games but he stopped short of saying when it will make an ultimate decision on the go.
Japan’s Abe, who places his political survival on the games, said repeatedly in recent days that there was no change in the Tokyo game plan and that it will be held as scheduled. In a March 6 parliamentary session, Abe said, ‘I am not considering a postponement or cancellation.
But over the past two weeks – the period that the Japanese government said will contain the the corona virus spread, and the last day is a couple of days ahead – COVID-19 cases have been showing up across Japan and the number of infected began growing rapidly since Feb. 16. As of March 6, the number of infected people, including Princess Diamond cruise ship passengers and those that returned from China’s Wuhan by air, totaled 1,156 and 13 had died.
The steepening patient growth curve is almost exactly what Harvard University epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch analyzed as that reported cases are a fraction of the real numbers as there are limits to how many people can be tested and the number of infections. In a March 2 CBS Evening News interview, Lipsitch confirmed his theory that 40 to 70 percent of world adult population, or about 5 billion, would contract CORVID-19 and unlike what President Trump claimed, the virus won’t disappear come spring time.
‘It is the best estimate that I’ve been able to make based on a combination of the mathematical models that we use to track and predict epidemics.’ – Lipsitch said in that interview. Of that number, 1 percent of infected would die, and that the mortality rates for seniors are progressively higher, he said.
With this estimate alone in the backdrops, holding the games sounds like a fool-hardy adventure for sure.
You’ll wonder which entity is likely to prod the IOC and Abe to surrender.:The U.S. Olympic Committee (teamusa.com) is most likely as it allies closely with NBC Universal, which paid $1.45 billion to the IOC to air all Tokyo games live.
–Toshio Aritake